The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 70% chance of tropical development over the next two days and a 80% chance over the next five days. The complex was moving west-northwest between 10-15 mph and is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by mid week. “Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two,” according to the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook Sunday morning. Those along the Gulf Coast need to closely monitor the progress of Delta over the next several days. If anything, rain chances will likely increase as the end of the work week approaches. It will depend on the strength and scope of the storm along with the eventual path. It’s too early to get specific with details on impacts for the Big Bend and South Georgia as of this post Monday morning. Water temperatures remain above normal in the Caribbean Sea, meaning there is likely plenty of heat content to maintain and increase intensity. The storm looked more organized compared to Sunday with the convection wrapping around the center of circulation, though the greatest amount of convection was on the southern side of the storm. The European ensemble members are slightly more west than the GFS. The differences, though somewhat subtle, is when and where the northward turn would be. As of this post, landfall would be along the central Gulf Coast sometime Friday.Įnsemble members of the American GFS and European models are in decent agreement with a general northwesterly trek into the Gulf of Mexico, then moving northward. The 4- to 5-day forecast track has Delta moving more northward and north-northeastward Thursday into Friday as it’s expected to get caught by an upper-level trough of low pressure. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Delta becoming a hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to move northwestward through Wednesday or Thursday, moving into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. Given the above-average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea, further strengthening is anticipated. Minimum central pressure was around 985 millibars during the first flight into the center of circulation. NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew from Central Florida to the center of Delta Monday afternoon and found a strengthening storm. The cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the northern Gulf of Mexico as well as wind shear will likely be limiting factors for intensity. The official forecast has the storm pushing into the western Gulf of Mexico before turning northward Thursday and making landfall along the central Gulf Coast as early as Friday with winds slightly lower (but still a hurricane). It’s then forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane Wednesday. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Cuba province of Pinar del Rio, Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico and Cozumel.ĭelta is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening, according to the 5 p.m. The biggest concern will be coastal issues, such as higher surf and a higher risk of riot currents. Farther east into the Big Bend and South Georgia, impacts are expected to be minimal. Regardless of strength, it’s expected to bring heavy rain, storm surge, and hurricane-force winds to portions of the Gulf Coast near Delta. By then, it will begin to feel the impacts of wind shear and cooler water temperatures. It’s forecast to move more north-northeastward by Friday and make landfall in Louisiana potently as a major hurricane. local time near Puerto Morelos, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.Ī northwesterly trek is forecast to turn more northward Thursday into Friday as it gets caught in a mid-level trough and moves on the western side of a ridge of high pressure to the east. Maximum sustained winds were at 105 mph with a minimum central pressure of 974 millibars. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The storm was centered 35 miles west of Cancun, Mexico, according to the 8 a.m. The hurricane is forecast to return to major-hurricane status before likely landfall in Louisiana Friday. (WCTV) - Hurricane Delta made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday morning, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to the region.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |